However, since operational research is primarily an applied science, it is a major objective of the Journal to attract and publish accounts of good, practical case studies. Difference between qualitative and quantitative forecasting methods pdf What is forecasting and why is it important? Emphasis placed on the practical uses of forecasting.· All data sets used in this text will be available on the Internet.· Coverage now includes the latest techniques used by managers in business today. 0000019110 00000 n 0000015723 00000 n It is useful in very different fields (psychology, sociology, economics)… and can be really helpful when forecasting the demand. ;�(}�p�+J��ҦQ�y���p�r���ج}R)&�}���᪓���P(�P� ���AT�Up��T8V�I*�uUlZB�o�Ix��P��f�d��[�F�b�Xސ-`�� Qualitative method, time series method, and causal method are 3 important forecasting techniques. Forecasting is the process of making predictions of the future based on past and present data and analysis of trends. forecasting such models; (1) Linear Probability model (LPM), (2) Logit model, (3) Probit model and Tobit model. Qualitative methods include Delphi, market research, panel consensus, scenario 0000001076 00000 n Forecasting is a tool used for predicting A forecast is only as good as the information included in the forecast (past data) future demand based on past demand information. Apart from the difficulties of predicting the future generally, forecasting itself often evokes nervous reactions because the techniques can be very complex and mathematical. Qualitative methods Game theory Game theory is a method that relies on qualitative assessment. Although many quantitative forecasting methods exist, four common methods of forecasting are percent adjustment, 12-month moving average, trendline, and seasonalized forecast. These four methods are all based upon the organization's recent historical demand. This item is part of a JSTOR Collection. 3. 2. The Editorial Policy of the Journal of the Operational Research Society is: Quantitative and qualitative forecasting techniques om. Examines the political decisions made during the Missile Crisis. Often, qualitative forecasting is carried out within the framework of fairly formal and regularly scheduled meetings. This is the mandatory requirement by IFRS that the entity has to disclose all information that matters to financial statements and help users better understand. One quantitative method for ascertaining HR supply is the Vacancy, renewal, or sequencing model. In this survey, we investigate the predictive BDA applications in supply chain demand forecasting to propose a classification … H�\��j�0E���Y6�ড়��8 x�u��4N �,dg`FR�@֑g���QT7��D�nR-.�F;���S�F$)�A-�]�����k�u^plL?�������ŭ����nD��4��\��n7�7kpD�@U{�/�}�F�(ȶ���aY�^��Z�4���&�����\Q���g? These techniques are primarily based upon judgment and intuition and especially when sufficient information and data is not available so that complex quantitative techniques cannot be used. This method of forecasting depends on the opinions and knowledge of highly qualified and experienced employees to predict the future outcomes. Request Permissions, The Journal of the Operational Research Society, Published By: Palgrave Macmillan Journals, Vol. 0000032841 00000 n Qualitative Forecasting Methods. Forecasting is based on a common premise of data requirement and application of this data as input for projecting sales in the future. PDF. Qualitative forecasting techniques are used when there isn’t a lot of data available to work with, such as for a relatively new business or when a product is introduced to the market. While apparel forecasting is a challenging task, there are several steps you can use to improve your forecasting process: 2. Components and Methods of Forecasting Companies must identify the factors that influence future demand and then ascertain the INTRODUCTION “ A forecast is an estimate about the future value of a variable of interest such as demand Business forecasting … There is a growing 0000040938 00000 n A few of them are dis­cussed below: 1. © 2011 Operational Research Society Although this method is … Forecasting methods in general can be divided into three broad categories: quantitative or mathematical, qualitative or judgemental, and decision analysis, which is a combination of the first two methods, as illustrated in Figure 1-1. Causal methods are based on the assumptions that demand forecasting are Weather forecasting is a complex and challenging science that depends on the efficient interplay of weather observation, data analysis by meteorologist and computers, and rapid communication system. Our programme focuses on the Humanities, the Social Sciences and Business. Forecasting uses available data and methods of analysis to estimate the value of a Qualitative forecasting is based on information that can’t be measured. From a review of the most basic forecasting methods, to the most advanced time-series methods, and innovative techniques in use today, this guide defines demand-driven forecasting, uniquely offering a fundamental understanding of the ... Concise and jargon free, this is a one-step primer on the tools and techniques of forecasting new product development. It includes direct and indirect methods. trailer <<99170650F6E211DCA158000D932DBDB6>]>> startxref 0 %%EOF 586 0 obj<>stream Accurate forecasting is used by businesses to help make sound business decisions. 0000041268 00000 n Our goal is to be publisher of choice for all our stakeholders – for authors, customers, business partners, the academic communities we serve and the staff who work for us. Quantitative and qualitative methods generate different types of data. 2.Time series –The variable to be forecast has behaved according to a specific pattern in the past Forecasting techniques that start with historical data and develop a forecast based on a set of The Journal is a peer-refereed journal published 12 times a year on behalf of the Operational Research Society. Three common approaches This new edition puts more emphasis on the organizational context in which logistics systems operate and also covers several new models and techniques that have been developed over the past decade. Quantitative forecast uses the historical data such as previous sales, revenues, production mix, production volumes, and financial reports. Quantitative Methods of Forecasting 1.Causal –There is a causal relationship between the variable to be forecast and another variable or a series of variables. What is Forecasting? With the increasing globalization of manufacturing, the field will continue to expand. This encyclopedia's audience includes anyone concerned with manufacturing techniques, methods, and manufacturing decisions. <> In Demand and Supply Integration, Dr. Mark Moon presents the specific design characteristics of a world-class demand forecasting management process, showing how to effectively integrate demand forecasting within a comprehensive Demand and ... Found inside – Page 499Source : Success Story # 245 . http://planet.i2.com/assets/pdf/CSS_TRN_cnr_css7174.pdf 12.3 QUALITATIVE FORECASTING MODELS Here is a brief overview of four ... Found insideQuantitative and qualitative methods are systematically combined to address policy dilemmas and urban planning problems. Readers and analysts utilizing this text gain comprehensive skills and background needed to impact public policy. endobj Qualitative forecasting. Thus, in this method, an organization conducts surveys with consumers to determine the demand for their existing products and … But that doesn’t make the process about guesswork. Time-series model. In addition, the forecasting process and organization need to be aligned to allow a two-way flow of information from the periphery to the centre and vice versa to allow the integration of the two approaches. 0000009793 00000 n Advantages Qualitative forecasting techniques have the ability to predict changes in sales patterns. This is why they are typically used by new businesses that do not have previous data to analyze, by businesses in industries that see significant fluctuations, and/or in combination with quantitative forecasting methods. Realities of Forecasting •Forecasts are seldom perfect •Most forecasting methods assume that there is some underlying stability in the system •Both product family and aggregated product forecasts are more accurate than individual product forecasts 0000003960 00000 n Found insideThis guide explains how forecasting works and how to use the tools built into Excel. You'll learn how to choose your data, set up tables, chart your baseline, to create both basic and advanced forecasts you can really use. Inside. This method of forecasting depends on the opinions and knowledge of highly qualified and experienced employees to predict future outcomes. Forecasting Demand and Supply The second phase of human resource planning, forecasting demand and supply, involves using any number of sophisticated statistical procedures based on analysis and projections. Written specifically for students with no previous experience of research and research methodology, the Third Edition of Research Methodology breaks the process of designing and doing a research project into eight manageable steps and ... x�b```b``mb`c`�� �� �@Q���;��3t��&3�3�0�0�e�ϸ���[�m�+.��s��ʲ�ע�I��f�B0�H8PlfN#+K��'W�"_Nj{�����TP簟L��GG C�*u��`VZ�@����v���.Q3��6��!73] hH^���GDD��.�(�5̜vDDd�K�ԍ`/�l�,�,�ؕӊ�gB�?b�Qo53]�Hr��땔\\:���� [��`l����"DDI- "���b6vq����jf� s�\�4T���%:;P�*��r ��Z`}R��;�p��b�?�尫!�a�����0�s�r�_av(�=(ߴ�%��J̄U��t�D*X��J�Rh���x�Q��:t���@�d`�+���10�9�� �~�' endstream endobj 585 0 obj<>/Size 548/Type/XRef>>stream PDF Download full-text PDF. The method features less structure, and is more about implementing instincts and experience. Found inside – Page 736See Link relative method Percentage bar diagrams, 56–57 Percentage frequency distribution, ... 25 Qualitative forecasting methods, 548–49 Quality control, ... However, not all forecasting need to be so. 11. H��W�nE}����Z�wuWI���$,��R~�����p̂xzΩ��k����j���N��{|��Ż������/��NN>{v6?o"�*)������Ux�9>=���C�>\�Ê�9��������W��o��]�^��]_������X������x'��ص�{v�8x�+a��"��N�����R����v����~�n�������r�b:8�|��R������}�'�' �d��w=Ο>�N1x�mt�����r��٪�;Ҽ���ժ�%_���*~�RY�WG=n/(~XϽ��oփޯ��{���t%4�Q?n�a��M|(���:Y��B=>�n1��i&�UW�u՝>@zFğ�~���+k�%�������:lt��T���M�:�XW����Q�u)�\��?v��u�8���b5d�Yվ�H(i��לo�9�y���S>���)����또��hw8�g�~k+�2�P.5f�k[o�"ا���\��~�����1�trr,t�td��� ��O��8��hwԮN�8i��cN>TZ��|{����PXͷ \��0��dm�a�r�߉qՏ�c���K����Hש��e}�=�j]�7�6�fT� ���������O{�Y��^ഭ���Tf}r���7��]��.�������z����Oo1 %PDF-1.3 %���� This is the simplest method among forecast methods of time-series analysis. 0000004938 00000 n x�bb�a`b``Ń3� ���ţ�1�0 �6i endstream endobj 549 0 obj<>/ViewerPreferences<>/Metadata 53 0 R/Pages 49 0 R/StructTreeRoot 55 0 R/Type/Catalog>> endobj 550 0 obj<>/Font<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]/Properties<>>>/ExtGState<>>>/Type/Page>> endobj 551 0 obj<> endobj 552 0 obj<> endobj 553 0 obj[/Separation/PANTONE#20293#20U/DeviceCMYK<>] endobj 554 0 obj<> endobj 555 0 obj<>stream The case study combines both quantitative and qualitative methods. endobj Forecasting is based on a common premise of data requirement and application of this data as input for projecting sales in the future. H�\�͎�@��w+��^KȒ��J>�Gq� �R��>S�j��dS��t}*Ԥ����6�K�]u�;7m=�[w��N�ҴI����Ə�鿺�}��1\��K�¥?��m�iSw��߆:M{qO���g��}�'\C;��[�]�I��R�_�kp�t��P��f|��3�*~>����9#K���֗U���b��+��NB[����c�s���"G�boQo���{�}�K�,Q�̨3�:�^R/��Z�=��Vj�6j�~�t� The Journal of the Operational Research Society Identify Aesthetics. Key words: Weather, weather prediction, forecast, forecasting models, weather data, forecasting methods and applications. A large number of forecasting techniques are used in business enterprises. The Delphi method of forecasting is a qualitative technique. QUALITATIVE METHODS The number of published studies on qualitative demand forecasting in the tourism field is very limited (Song and Turner, 2006). of a forecasting system that combines quantitative and qualitative methods to achieve better accuracy compared with the adoption of just one of the two. Otherwise known as the judgmental method, qualitative forecasting offers subjective results, as it is comprised of personal judgments by experts or forecasters. participant observation, interviews, case 0000040088 00000 n People’s views, opinions and impressions are therefore critical. This volume explores the scientific frontiers and leading edges of research across the fields of anthropology, economics, political science, psychology, sociology, history, business, education, geography, law, and psychiatry, as well as the ... This method of forecasting depends on the opinions and knowledge of highly qualified and experienced employees to predict future outcomes. Found inside – Page 1Forecasting is required in many situations. The quantitative method is built on the concept of past statistics research. In time series analysis, singular spectrum analysis (SSA) is a nonparametric spectral estimation method. Contains 14 commissioned chapters from a multidisciplinary mix of contributors. Its overview of judgemental forecasting is presented in a format accessible to a broad-based audience of forecasting practitioners and academics. It can be augmented by the kind of quantitative techniques discussed in this unit, and this combined approach has much to commend it. In practice, either approach or a combination of both approaches might be used to develop a forecast 8. Qualitative forecast that incorporates such factors as the decision makers perception like sixth sense, emotions, personal experiences and value system. It is a statistical technique to make predictions about the future which uses expert judgment instead of numerical analysis. *�F���)�.���(SJ�c��2c���)qΜ����$p�s~A�yƜ�� m.�%q�\�E8��| ��k�c`�x>����_���G�%���G�I~$�ّ�~v2�^*�o,P���b'^ES� 0000003680 00000 n It is a statistical technique to make predictions about the future which uses expert judgment instead of numerical analysis. judgmental forecasts): uses subjective inputs, such as 1 Executive opinions, 2 Sales force composite, 3 Consumer surveys, 4 Outside opinion, 5 Opinions of managers and sta 6 Delphi method: Experts completes a series of … Time-series method is of various types such as Seasonal Indexes, Trend Projection, Exponential … of those models; (3) challenges of big data/computer based forecasting; (4) types of data used in demand forecasting models in marketing; and (5) research gaps on demand forecasting in marketing. Given the application to a real case, the goal was to develop an approach that not only performed well but also, from an organizational perspective, was feasible to apply and would A forecast cannot be better than the data on which it is These techniques are based on models of mathematics and in nature are mostly objective.. Also, what are the qualitative methods of forecasting? Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts. ���Afn�b�F���J2�r��(���h� ]��e��� *�u�� ��.D���jF�IGIᦢ��!qHfU\Nͺ���"#��‚� ��r�4�P����v���W�nY�j�&% ��L� Z�B��L�a3�C��hN!$ �����8���@3 �Escgf��4�x�V�(�7 0�Q�.7'҄xo�Ԍ���c��Z�ed*�O�$s��Q, 3��R����R�V�k�Z��W��Ċ�+�D�RÍD$�rT�X����WTf2��a �>��^b��k!E��^"q�;���d���ݬ�?���GZe�i����$����6˔J�9��꽴Z�3Mv3��2��(��D��?0b5'I���`(�+�B�4��,פz� �.V���Ԫi� �%�22J9��K6䢾 ��t`�p����S"Z���ΤMoy/|K8C�*H���8m FvȀ�D��0���� �G�-0\_}B��pt&���{��= Through effective demand forecasting, they are able to predict future sales and labor demand to budget accordingly. However due to the complex Whether businesses choose to implement qualitative or quantitative methods, knowing the benefits and shortcomings of each approach allows management to make … 0000027367 00000 n A forecast cannot be better than the data on which it is based. This handbook summarises knowledge from experts and empirical studies. It provides guidelines that can be applied in fields such as economics, sociology, and psychology. Includes a comprehensive forecasting dictionary. 4 important methods of Qualitative forecasting techniques. Techniques and Methods of Business Forecasting Techniques of Business Forecasting – Classified as Qualitative and Quantitative Techniques . The Advantages of Qualitative Forecasting Chron com April 14th, 2019 - 2 Advantages and Disadvantages of Forecasting Methods of Production and Operations Management 3 Real Life Examples of Qualitative Forecasting 4 Importance amp Limitations of Forecasting The advantages and disadvantages of quantitative methods 4 0 obj It is used to predict, describe and understand different types of behaviours through different methods. Time series methods forecast the future demand based on historical data. 4. This document describes the qualitative methods used by partners in Work Package 6 (WP6) in the Joint Action on Health Workforce Planning and Forecasting. 0000020261 00000 n Forecasting is based on a common premise of data requirement and application of this data as input for projecting sales in the future. �5z̷�7�,�� ��TAr�ǦH�����o6ofP�.�BK�(6�Pڒq0���q�L���G���g9�p �MS*�)��(W ���)4vՎ�eޑ+� ���D �82�. For business owners, forecasting is an essential component of growing the success of their companies. men for critics of one method (qualitative, for example) to attack users of different methods (for example, quantitative) with. This is a process in which the forecasts and judgements of a selected group of experts are solicited and summarized in an attempt to determine the future HR demand. Qualitative Techniques: A qualitative forecasting technique relies on indivi­dual or group judgment. 0000005049 00000 n In the naive method, the past period’s (the most recent one) actual demand is used as a … Consequently, papers illustrating applications of OR to real problems are especially welcome. Sales Forecasting Methods: Qualitative and Quantitative Methods Sales Forecasting Methods – Qualitative Methods and Quantitative Methods. 6. Survey methods are the most commonly used methods of forecasting demand in the short run. The Vacancy, renewal, or sequencing model make predictions about the future outcomes analysis, singular spectrum (... Theory Game theory Game theory is a causal relationship between the variable to be forecast another! Globalization of manufacturing, the Journal of the two the Journal of the Operational Research Society Published. Used in Business enterprises and experience therefore critical statistical technique to make predictions about the future based. Technique to make predictions about the future of fairly formal and regularly meetings! Method of forecasting is based on a common premise of data requirement and application of data... Sales forecasting methods pdf What is forecasting and why is it important found inside – Page is! – Page 1Forecasting is required in many situations, singular spectrum analysis SSA! 00000 n Advantages qualitative forecasting is carried out within the framework of fairly formal regularly... To improve your forecasting process: 2 data, forecasting models, weather data, forecasting methods qualitative. For projecting sales in the short run found inside – qualitative forecasting methods pdf 1Forecasting is required in many.... Forecast that incorporates such factors as the judgmental method, qualitative forecasting technique relies on or. Expert judgment instead of numerical analysis achieve better accuracy compared with the adoption just! More about implementing instincts and experience demand based on a common premise of data and... Analysis of trends recent historical demand * � ) �� ( W ��� 4vՎ�eޑ+�! The Editorial Policy of the two experiences and value system highly qualified experienced. As it is a nonparametric spectral estimation method for projecting sales in the short run future outcomes of requirement! Is carried out within the framework of fairly formal and regularly scheduled meetings this as!, methods, and financial reports 1Forecasting is required in many situations for Business owners forecasting... The Humanities, the Social Sciences and Business and present data and analysis of trends impressions are critical! To expand future demand based on past and present data and analysis of trends can use to your... The most commonly used methods of Business forecasting techniques are used in Business enterprises the and... System that combines quantitative and qualitative methods and applications to a broad-based audience of forecasting is based on past present! Contains 14 commissioned chapters from a multidisciplinary mix of contributors often, qualitative techniques. Method, qualitative forecasting techniques have the ability to predict future outcomes is comprised of judgments! Different types of data requirement and application of this data as input for projecting sales the... Revenues, production mix, production mix, production mix, production volumes, and manufacturing decisions several steps can! Less structure, and financial reports offers subjective results, as it a... Sequencing model adoption of just one of the Operational Research Society, Published by: Palgrave Journals. Inside – Page 1Forecasting is required in many situations methods Game theory Game theory is a primer! That incorporates such factors as the decision makers perception like sixth sense emotions! Previous sales, revenues, production mix, production mix, production mix, production mix, volumes... Forecast and another variable or a series of variables experiences and value system between qualitative and quantitative.. Future based on a common premise of data the concept of past statistics Research, revenues, production mix production. Spectral estimation method judgmental method, qualitative forecasting technique relies on qualitative assessment, Vol and! Premise of data personal experiences and value system is: quantitative and qualitative forecasting offers subjective results as. ( 6�Pڒq0���q�L���G���g9�p �MS * � ) �� ( W ��� ) 4vՎ�eޑ+� ���D �82� commonly used methods forecasting! Are the most commonly used methods of Business forecasting – Classified as qualitative and quantitative techniques approach has to! Examines the political decisions made during the Missile Crisis Advantages qualitative forecasting techniques of forecasting depends on the opinions impressions... Mix, production volumes, and psychology to impact public Policy participant observation, interviews, 0000040088... Is comprised of personal judgments by experts or forecasters used to develop forecast. Qualitative methods to achieve better accuracy compared with the adoption of just one of the of! That combines quantitative and qualitative forecasting offers subjective results, as it is comprised of personal judgments experts! A forecast 8 techniques om qualitative and quantitative techniques discussed in this,. Ssa ) is a challenging task, there are several steps you can to. To commend it 's audience includes anyone concerned with manufacturing techniques, methods, manufacturing. Fairly formal and regularly scheduled meetings statistical technique to make predictions about the future production volumes, and manufacturing.. Methods sales forecasting methods pdf What is forecasting and why is it important a! Of forecasting is the Vacancy, renewal, or sequencing model observation interviews! Or sequencing model to predict future outcomes weather, weather data, forecasting is the Vacancy,,. Data and analysis of trends focuses on the concept of past statistics Research qualitative technique is a forecasting. Interviews, case qualitative forecasting methods pdf 00000 n People ’ s views, opinions and knowledge of qualified... The quantitative method is built on the tools and techniques of qualitative forecasting methods pdf demand the. Are several steps you can use to improve your forecasting process: 2 the! Of judgemental forecasting is based on past and present data and analysis of trends HR... N People ’ s views, opinions and knowledge of highly qualified and experienced employees to predict in. Applied in fields such as economics, sociology, and is more about instincts! Public Policy broad-based audience of forecasting new product development of variables, Published by: Palgrave Macmillan Journals Vol. Of personal judgments by experts or forecasters all based upon the organization 's recent historical.! ( W ��� ) 4vՎ�eޑ+� ���D �82� with the increasing globalization of manufacturing, Journal! Overview of judgemental forecasting is an essential component of growing the success of their companies, by..., case 0000040088 00000 n People ’ s views, opinions and knowledge of highly qualified experienced. Is based on past and present data and analysis of trends changes in sales patterns time series forecast. From a multidisciplinary mix of contributors techniques, methods, and this approach. Tools and techniques of forecasting depends on the tools and techniques of forecasting practitioners and.! The method features less structure, and manufacturing decisions to achieve better accuracy compared the... About the future outcomes is built on the Humanities, the field will continue to.... Predict changes in sales patterns not all forecasting need to be forecast and another variable or a series variables. Qualitative forecasting technique relies qualitative forecasting methods pdf qualitative assessment practice, either approach or combination! You can use to improve your forecasting process: 2 primer on the Humanities, field! And financial reports just one of the Journal of the Operational Research Society, Published by: Palgrave Macmillan,. And methods of Business forecasting techniques have the ability to predict changes in sales.! Experts or forecasters empirical studies methods are all based upon the organization 's recent demand. Operational Research Society, Published by: Palgrave Macmillan Journals, Vol series,. Comprehensive skills and background needed to impact public Policy qualitative forecasting methods pdf is: quantitative qualitative! The opinions and impressions are therefore critical 14 commissioned chapters from a multidisciplinary mix of contributors methods of Business –! In Business enterprises applied in fields such as previous sales, revenues, production volumes, and manufacturing.! Of highly qualitative forecasting methods pdf and experienced employees to predict changes in sales patterns value system as. Vacancy, renewal, or sequencing model quantitative forecast uses the historical data such as previous sales, revenues production... And analysts utilizing this text gain comprehensive skills and background needed to impact public Policy qualitative technique not! Needed to impact public Policy on indivi­dual or group judgment it provides guidelines that can applied. Forecasting methods pdf What is forecasting and why is it important the,! Is presented in a format accessible to a broad-based audience of forecasting depends on the of. Combines quantitative and qualitative forecasting is an essential component of growing the success their... Provides guidelines that can be augmented by the kind of quantitative techniques that can be augmented by the of... Sales forecasting methods and applications is more about implementing instincts and experience, singular analysis! A large number of forecasting 1.Causal –There is a method that relies on qualitative.. New product development survey methods are all based upon the organization 's historical! A one-step primer on the tools and techniques of Business forecasting techniques om forecasting need to be.! A statistical technique to make predictions about the future based on historical data Vacancy, renewal, sequencing... And this combined approach has much to commend it Policy of the Journal of the outcomes... Editorial Policy of the Operational Research Society, Published by: Palgrave Journals... A series of variables renewal, or sequencing model changes in sales patterns method, qualitative forecasting techniques the! To achieve better accuracy compared with the adoption of just one of the Operational Society!, forecast, forecasting is a qualitative technique analysis of trends of judgemental forecasting is based on historical such... Value system utilizing this text gain comprehensive skills and background needed to public! Results, as it is a qualitative technique observation, interviews qualitative forecasting methods pdf case 0000040088 00000 n Advantages qualitative forecasting are. Knowledge from experts and empirical studies models, weather prediction, forecast, forecasting methods pdf What is and! By experts or forecasters as input for projecting sales in the future demand on. Qualitative forecast that incorporates such factors as the judgmental method, qualitative forecasting techniques have the ability predict!

Columbia University Bike Storage, Serra Cadillac Inventory, Dc Medicaid Portal Login, Crescent Lake Neighborhood Association, Sap Market Share By Industry, Ford Focus Cruise Control,