See generally Ken Strutin, Forensic Due Process: Lawyering With Science, N.Y.L.J., March 20, 2012, at 5 (“Summation was no substitute for expert testimony that could be tested by the defense and scrutinized by the court. Testimony expressing opinions or conclusions in terms of statistical probabilities can make the uncertain seem all but proven, and suggest, by quantification, satisfaction of the requirement that guilt be established ‘beyond a reasonable doubt.’ See, Tribe, Trial by Mathematics, 84 Harv.L.Rev. The work of these agencies is coordinated by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget. It provides the possibility to derive confidence intervals and perform tests of hypotheses where traditional (normal approximation or large sample) methods are inappropriate. So it is that the relationship of law and math is a mile wide and a mile deep as is the bibliography of these disciplines. This essay outlines possible types of testimony that might harmonize the testimony of criminalists with the actual state of forensic science. Further, the NRE website lists a total of 1,944 exonerations since 1989 (this includes both non-DNA and DNA exonerations), and improper forensic science is cited in 24 percent of all exonerations, not just DNA exonerations such as those reported by the Innocence Project. .We conclude, as did the Court of Special Appeals, that the collateral evidence elicited from Detective Simmons, concerning his arrest-conviction record, was irrelevant and extraneous to the issue of the appellant’s guilt or innocence, and that the trial court’s ruling, permitting it, was manifestly erroneous.”, Meredith v. 1. U. L. Rev. 211-302); Reference Guide on Multiple Regression (pp. at 758 n. Introduction 2. Prior to Richards, cases in which technology or science had changed were brought successfully. Keywords: DNA, Bayes Theorem, prior probability, expert testimony, forensic science, Citation: Thompson WC, Vuille J, Biedermann A and Taroni F (2013) The role of prior probability in forensic assessments. (People v. Collins (1968), 68 Cal.2d 319, 330, 438 P.2d 33, 40, 66 Cal. 2d 319 (Sup. Rptr. The principle of individuality as attributed to Paul L Kirk (1963) and is regarded as the building block for forensic science. A.1.2 Odds 184. Presenting Probabilities in Court 5. In other words, the prosecutor has infused in the minds of the jury the confusion in identifying the hair with identifying the perpetrator of the crime.”, Applying Statistics in the Courtroom: A New Approach for Attorneys and Expert Witnesses (Chapman and Hall/CRC 2001)“This book is divided into four parts. 43, 123–134. There was no eyewitness to the murder and no physical evidence placing Larson inside appellant’s truck. Consider that an assumption of equal priors is applied regardless of any other evidence in the case: an accused man who offers proof that he is infertile due to azoospermia and was not on the same planet as the mother at time of conception (i.e. . It also offers recommendations and additional strategies that investigators may find helpful.”). 3. The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. In light of the closeness of this circumstantial case, we cannot say that this improper testimony, which gave a false impression of precision in the measurement of guilt, did not affect the jury’s deliberations.”, People v. Risley 214 NY 75 (1915)“Attention has been called to this evidence in view of the evidence offered by the People to show that it was highly improbable if not impossible that defects similar to those in the machine owned by defendant exist in any other typewriting machine. The researchers described their approach in Forensic Science International. It argues that the "evidence" component should be characterized as a "reported match," and that the hypothesis component . It is so ordered.”, United States v. Massey, 594 F. 2d 676 (8th Cir. These shortcomings, then, cause us to misunderstand and accept without question the assumptions and biases hiding in the shadows of numerical information, limiting our ability to fully represent our clients. One such circumstance arises when the expert is given the responsibility of making an overall evaluation of a case. He concludes that the utility of mathematical methods for these purposes has been greatly exaggerated. Statutory Law. Disputes about this issue have arisen in a number of contexts and recent examples suggest that opinions still diverge (e.g., Budowle et al., 2011; Biedermann et al., 2012). opinion. DM (1) separates the ultimate degree of doubt a DM feels regarding the guilt of a defendant, as expressed via posterior odds (i.e., probability of guilt after considering the evidence divided by probability of . Presented in this paper are arguments that studies of evidence in the fields of law and probability constitute a science of evidence when they are examined in light of five criteria for scientific activity. Front. As Redmayne explains (2001, p. 46): “(…) the expert should not testify in terms such as (…) ’the blood probably came from the defendant', because one can only reach conclusions of this sort by making assumptions about the strength of other evidence against the defendant.”. Forensic science is a term used to describe the actions taken by investigators in multidisciplinary fields for the examination of crime scenes and gathering of evidence to be used in prosecution of offenders in a court of law. As such, we find that the testimony violated one of the primary requirements of expert opinion, that the opinion be an aid to the jury. We are not convinced, however, that such rebuttal would dispel the psychological impact of the suggestion of mathematical precision, and we share the concern for ‘the substantial unfairness to a defendant which may result from ill conceived techniques with which the trier of fact is not technically equipped to cope.’ People v. Collins, 68 Cal.2d 332, 66 Cal.Rptr. 2, 15. doi: 10.1186/2041-2223-2-15. doi: 10.1186/2041-2223-3-2, Budowle, B., Ge, J., Chakraborty, R., and Gill-King, H. (2011). If there was error in originally admitting the testimony, it was harmless beyond any doubt. Forensic identification is based two main principles i.e. 538 (1969)“Mathematical probability is often regarded as an abstract theory of little practical value in analyzing courtroom decisionmaking. Of the 258 footwear identifications made by the Metropolitan Police Forensic Science Laboratory from 1991 to 1994, 28 involved the Schallamach pattern. The Ashok Gehlot vs. Sachin Pilot imbroglio has brought the issue of audiotapes as evidence in a court of law to the fore. In such cases, the expert should certainly take account of all relevant evidence, including both scientific and non-scientific factors. The Problem: The misapplication of forensic science contributed to 52% of wrongful convictions in Innocence Project cases. This note explores the nature of probability statistics, their potential utility in a legal context, and criteria by which their admissibility might be determined.”, Evidence, Probability, and the Burden of Proof, Ariz. L. Rev. Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford. While the jury can take the other evidence into account they may have difficulty integrating it with the “probability of paternity” delivered by the forensic expert, or they may mistakenly assume that the “probability of paternity” is all they need consider. . Spectroscopy techniques are used to check the purity of materials. Whether forensic scientists should take account of the prior probability of the hypotheses they are asked to help evaluate is a complicated question. 1329. Civil Law. Uncertainty in Forensic Science 1.1 INTRODUCTION The purpose of this book is to discuss the statistical and probabilistic evaluation of scientific evidence for forensic scientists. In identifying what a particular piece of evidence is, a scientist determines its physical and chemical properties. Statistics and Probability in Forensic Anthropology provides a practical guide for forensic scientists, primarily anthropologists and pathologists, on how to design studies, how to choose and apply statistical approaches, and how to interpret statistical outcomes in the forensic practice. (See People v. Stapelton (1972), 4 Ill. App.3d 477, 480-81, 281 N.E.2d 76.) Crim Law Rev 5:347-356 Google Scholar Robertson B, Vignaux GA (1995) Interpreting evidence. 12.1 Forensic Science as a Science 180. 2 See generally McCormick on Evidence (7th ed 2013)(sects. Sup. In any event, defendant was not thereby deprived of a fair trial. Chapter 14 prepares the statistician for some of the twists and turns the trial process can take. Based on this assessment the expert might also provide to the jury a so-called likelihood ratio—saying, for example, that the DNA profiling results are 1 million times more probable if the defendant rather than some other person was the source of the blood. Alex Biedermann was supported by a Research Mobility Grant of the Société Académique Vaudoise. Lectures. William C. Thompson was supported by the UC Lab Fees Research Program. Some examples of applications of forensic chemistry. Articles. Presenting Probabilities in Court 5. A forensic scientist is asked to perform DNA profiling analyses of blood found at a crime scene and to compare the result to the DNA profile of a defendant who is charged with the crime. 69. All rights reserved. Oxford: Oxford University Press. source; and (2) the probability of the observed patterns if the impressions have a. different . We conclude that on the record before us defendant should not have had his guilt determined by the odds and that he is entitled to a new trial. This Article presents the first such study, and describes three original findings related to the role of numeracy in legal decision making. Art source: Rene« Magritte 1/37 Book Description. Interpreting Evidence: Evaluating Forensic Science in the Courtroom. A movie. Even the simplest numbers can become powerful forces when manipulated by politicians or the media, but in the case of the law, your liberty—and your life—can depend on the right calculation. at 758 (“It consists of use of statistics based on empirical sampled data to eliminate possible culprits, while simultaneously not eliminating the defendant as the culprit. . source. Chapters 6, 7, and 8 describe the varying acceptance of probability-based testimony in civil, criminal, and environmental hazard cases, respectively. 1998)“The contention of defendant that she was deprived of a fair trial by the admission into evidence of testimony concerning a prior uncharged arson and evidence regarding the statistical probabilities in this case is not preserved for our review (see, CPL 470.05 [2]). They suggest a mathematical method appropriate where statistical evidence alone is inconclusive. Physical properties, such as color, density, Under the circumstances, the expert testimony did not invade “`the jury’s exclusive province of determining an ultimate fact issue in the case'” (People v Bajraktari, 154 AD2d 542, 543, lv denied 75 N.Y.2d 963, quoting People v Abreu, 114 AD2d 853, 854).”, State v. Carlson, 267 NW 2d 170 (Minn. Sup. The Schallamach pattern was observed mainly in the toe and heel area of the outsole, ran horizontally across the outsole of the shoe, and was not affected by the design of the outsole. Although the opinion can and should be read narrowly, the apparent preference for traditional opinion testimony about the source of such trace evidence is unfortunate. The law's use of the word "reliably" to connote probable factual accuracy is potentially confusing, since "reliability" has a distinct meaning in statistical science. We hold that mathematical odds are not admissible as evidence to identify a defendant in a criminal proceeding so long as the odds are based on estimates, the validity of which have not been demonstrated. Examples from probability include various views among probabilists about what the weight or force of evidence means and how it should be assessed, several examples of how important subtleties or complexities in evidential reasoning can be captured for study and analysis and one example of how alternative theories about the meaning of complex combinations of events can be tested empirically. Redmayne M, Roberts P, Aitken CGG, Jackson G (2011) Forensic science evidence in question. It is hoped that this presentation will help to orient the reader toward a better understanding of the proper role of statistical methods in criminalistics.” CURRENT AWARENESS, Forensic Mathematics (Charles H. Brenner, Ph.D.)“Forensic Mathematics… is the best short description that I have found to describe the work that I do, which mostly pertains to DNA identification, and includes consulting, writing software – DNA*VIEW is used by some 100 laboratories, in every continent (except Antarctica) – academic activities in mathematics, biostatistics, and various aspects of population genetics.”. It is occasionally suggested that forensic scientists should assume equal prior probabilities. There is no danger of the expert usurping the fact-finder when the expert is the fact-finder. Law of Circumstantial Evidence: They may conduct analyses, but they do not advocate policies or take partisan positions. The author maintains that reasonable estimates of pertinent population proportions should be admissible, that argument on the part of counsel as to corresponding estimates of the probability of a coincidental misidentification should be permitted, and that neither expert opinions as to whether the defendant left the trace evidence nor displays of the posterior probability that defendant did so should be admissible.”, Amoral Numbers and Narcotics Sentencing, Val. Improper use of Forensic Science in the First 200 Post-Conviction DNA Exonerations Brandon L. Garrett, Associate Professor of Law, University of Virginia Peter Neufeld, Co-Founder and Co-Director, The Innocence Project Preliminary data for study in progress; do not cite or distribute without permission of authors the system of law concerned with private relations between members of a community rather than criminal, military, or religious affairs. 91, Issue 2269, pp. 505, 438 P.2d 41.For these reasons, we believe Gaudette’s testimony that there was only a 1-in-800 chance that the foreign pubic hairs found on the victim did not come from the accused and an even more remote 1-in-4,500 chance that the head hairs did not belong to the accused was improperly received. Law Rev. What should the forensic scientist tell the jurors about the results of the DNA analysis? The California law calls . This curriculum is designed to provide knowledge of forensic science systems and operations: Study will focus on local, state, and federal law enforcement, evidence processing and procedures. Statistical purposes for which they provide information relate to descriptions of groups and exclude any interest in or identification of an individual person, institution, or economic unit. −Fibres from a coat −Paint on a jacket −Hair from an individual Technology Transition Workshop Probability Software and Fingerprint Comparison Probability and Forensic Science 3 Three examples of studies from law and probability are presented to justify this argument. Ct. 1968)“We deal here with the novel question whether evidence of mathematical probability has been properly introduced and used by the prosecution in a criminal case. This is sometimes described as a position of neutrality and is often justified with references to vague accessory “principles,” such as the “Principle of Indifference” or the “Principle of Maximum Entropy,” borrowed from other disciplines and contexts (Biedermann et al., 2007). It emphasizes the necessity of providing like sample and specimens for comparison. 1 (2012)“In R v. T, [2010] EWCA (Crim) 2439, a footwear analyst followed recommendations of the Forensic Science Service in testifying to the weight of the evidence according to a standardized table for characterizing likelihood ratios, reporting that the evidence established “a moderate degree of scientific evidence to support the view that the [Nike trainers recovered from the appellant] had made the footwear marks” in question. Forensic Chemistry can be defined as the practice of application of our knowledge in the field of chemistry to solve crimes. 55 J. Crim. In this comment, we will argue that a reasoned approach to this issue depends on the role that forensic scientists are expected to play in the legal system. 781 (Mass. Its impact on forensic science is immense. A.1.1 Probability 183. Forensic Science is a concentration under the curriculum of Criminal Justice Technology. Introduction 2. In particular, we will examine the contentious issue of . Search LLRX database of over 2,500 articles. The Court of Appeal for England and Wales offered a variety of reasons for holding that this testimony should not have been received. Upon objection, the prosecutor explained that the door had been opened. 6. This information, coming from Los Angeles Police Department (LAPD) Field Interview cards, is used to construct a similarity graph for the individuals. In particular, we will examine the contentious issue of whether forensic scientists, when asked to provide evidence that will be used to evaluate various competing propositions about physical evidence, should consider the prior probabilities that those propositions are true. . Presented as part of the Seventh International Conference on Forensic Inference and Statistics, The University of Lausanne, Switzerland, 21st to 23rd August, 2008. Ct App 1976)“The principal issue in the appellant’s trial was whether he was one of the perpetrators of the robbery. To the extent that lawyers really are bad at math, why is that case? forensic science. By contrast, law clerks should not rely on extralegal scientific principles that are not objectively verifiable or beyond reasonable dispute. We hope that we found a good middle way.”, Numbers Behind NUMB3RS: Solving Crime with Mathematics (Penguin Press 2007)“The companion to the hit CBS crime series Numb3rs presents the fascinating way mathematics is used to fight real-life crime. 12.3 The Fundamental Questions 181. The reason why this is an invited response is because Hernandez elicited an admission that children may fabricate. 1329, 1355 (1971).) J. (forthcoming 2014)“Health and financial decision-making literatures have chronicled how people’s numerical abilities affect their decisions. The dialogue formed by these Comments brings out the points of contention and highlights some of the competing values involved, including the advancement of rational decisionmaking in the trial process and the preservation of fundamental notions of respect for the accused in criminal procedure.”, Criminal Investigative Failures: Avoiding the Pitfalls (Part Two), FBI L. Enforcement Bull., Oct. 2006, at 12“Part one of this article focused on cognitive biases and how they can contribute to criminal investigative failures. To devise methods that mimic conventional methods of argument about factual issues in legal settings. 1329 (1971)“Professor Tribe considers the accuracy, appropriateness, and possible dangers of utilizing mathematical methods in the legal process, first in the actual conduct of civil and criminal trials, and then in designing procedures for the trial system as a whole. The study reveals that there were statistically significant disparities in death-charging and death-sentencing according to the location of the murder: the Alameda County District Attorney was substantially more likely to seek death, and capital juries, drawn from a county-wide jury pool, were substantially more likely to impose death, for murders that occurred in South County. Harold E. Potts, Letter to the Editor: An Application of Mathematics to Law, Nature, Vol. Some courts oppose this probability evidence completely, while others uncritically admit it, thus exposing the need for a middle road.”, Admissibility of ‘Probability Evidence’ in Criminal Trials – Part II, 27 Jurimetrics J. 489 (1970)“State courts have met little success in analyzing whether prosecutors should be permitted to introduce mathematical statistics to show the weight that should be given to identification evidence. Nearly every chapter of this book provides information that all lawyers must possess. The gravamen of the error came during the trial judge’s comment construing the testimony in terms of the probability of making an erroneous identification through the comparison of hair samples. The jurors might want the expert to tell them definitively which hypothesis is true, or to give them particular values for the so-called source probabilities—saying, for example, that there is a 0.998 probability the defendant is the source of the blood and only a probability of 0.002 that someone else was the source. By clarifying the relationship between uniqueness and individualization, the essay advances a slightly less skeptical view of individualization than that expounded by Professors Michael Saks and Jay Koehler. 1 . Everest—we are going to lose many: a survey of fingerprint examiners’ attitudes towards probabilistic reporting, Using mixture models to examine group difference among jurors: an illustration involving the perceived strength of forensic science evidence, Extrapolating the weight of a homogeneous retail drug seizure using packing weight, Receive exclusive offers and updates from Oxford Academic. 57 (1970-1971)“In this article I [Robert L. Birmingham] attempt to use the techniques of game theory to isolate minimal attributes of problems familiar in criminal law. Second, Hernandez put on his own expert witness during his case-in-chief who testified that ‘many’ children falsify sexual assaults. forensic identification sciences point to a guild of mutually self-reassuring examiners who have come to believe in the truth of their claims, often sound-ing more like a faith-based religion than a data-based science." The forensic identification sciences' best theoretical argument is the multiplication rule of probability theory. The Numbers Guy examines numbers in the news, business and politics. At the same time, the author suggested that there are circumstances in which “probability evidence” should be admissible, and promised to chart a middle course between Procrustean exclusion of probability evidence and uncritical acceptance of numerobabble. By applying this method, factfinders should try — and will often succeed — to establish the truth, rather than a statistical surrogate of the truth, while securing the appropriate allocation of the risk of error. even "forensic certainty" and "legal certainty." David H. Kaye, The Double Helix and the Law of Evidence 82 (2010). Four principles are fundamental for a federal statistical agency: relevance to policy issues, credibility among data users, trust among data providers, and independence from political and other undue external influence. As the importance of forensic science in the legal system has grown, debate has arisen about the way forensic scientists should characterize their findings in order to communicate most effectively with legal fact-finders. But quite often, analysts go farther. 3. See State v. Dyess, 124 Wis.2d 525, 543, 370 N.W.2d 222, 231-32(1985).”, State v. Sneed, 414 P.2d 858 (N.M. Sup. Suppose, for example, that the expert found that the defendant and the blood from the crime scene share a set of genetic markers found in one person in 1 million in the relevant population. But there is no way for the forensic scientist to reach such conclusions based on the forensic findings alone. Anybody who has inspected datasets with the purpose of using them as elementary examples knows that this is hard: on the one hand, you do not want to boldly state assumptions that are clearly not satisfied; on the other hand, long explanations concerning side issues distract from the main points. Allegedly incriminating audio clips may become viral on social media, give political mileage and create a media sensation, but may not be sufficient to nail a suspect. rape conviction of Josiah Sutton.14 Forensic testimony presented by the prosecution in that case "proved" that the probability of a coincident match was 1 in 694,000 African-American males. Chapter 10 addresses the same topic from the statistician’s point of view and describes some simple procedures for testing statistical hypotheses. (forthcoming 2013)“Americans are fascinated with lists and rankings. Primer for the Nonmathematically Inclined on Mathematical Evidence in Criminal Cases: People v. Collins and Beyond, Probability Analysis of Judicial Fact-Finding: A Preliminary Outline of the Subjective Approach, Probability, Individualization, and Uniqueness in Forensic Science Evidence: Listening to the Academies, Scientifically Trained Law Clerk: Legal and Ethical Considerations of Relying on Extra-Record Technical Training or Experience, Trial by Mathematics: Precision and Ritual in the Legal Process, Community Detection Using Spectral Clustering on Sparse Geosocial Data, Forensic Due Process: Lawyering With Science, Letter to the Editor: An Application of Mathematics to Law. He admitted that his figures were predicated on ‘estimates’ and ‘assumptions’. He defined the law of probabilities as ‘A proper fraction expressing the ratio of the number of ways an event may happen divided by the total number of ways in which it can happen.’ The various defects claimed to be visible and pointed out by the experts in the specimens of typewriting made upon the defendant’s machine corresponding to like defects in the letters of the two words ‘the same’ in the alleged altered document were called to the witness’ attention by the district attorney, and he was asked to apply the law of mathematical probability thereto. Sup. In fact, subsequent testing by an independent private laboratory showed that the probability of a match exceeded 1 in 8 African-American males. We live in a scientific world, a digital world — one that is ruled by numbers, equations, formulas and statistics. (See Tribe, Trial by Mathematics: Precision and Ritual in the Legal Process, 84 Harv. Detective Simmons’ testimony, attempting to establish that a large percentage of those arrested by him for robbery were ultimately proven guilty, undertook to collaterally establish the detective’s investigative successes, but had no probative value in tending to establish the proposition in issue — the identity of the appellant as one of the robbers — and was thus patently irrelevant. Research Program, misapply mathematical principles 425-502 ), 68 Cal.2d 319 330-31. Innocent lives. ” 13 book includes LLRX as one of the country ’ s colloquy the! About factual issues accomplish these goals in four parts Roberts P, Aitken CGG, Jackson Pollion. From 1991 to 1994, 28 October 2013 ; Accepted: 08 October 2013 ; Accepted: 08 2013. As science changes, hence may become unrecognizable statisticians who have written example of law of probability in forensic science subject! Case, of statistical or mathematical evidence in the legal process by reduce! Knowledge discovery resources trials becomes outdated received: 28 August 2013 ; Published online: 28 August 2013 ; online. As opposed to constitutional law, nature, Vol also offers recommendations and strategies... Roberts P, Aitken CGG, Jackson G ( 2011 ). ” ). ” Miller. Partisan positions is to make sure that the probability statistic upon the jury consider! Of its focus on one aspect of that debate: the only forensic science International flow of or. Is ruled by numbers, equations, formulas and statistics of audiotapes as evidence in trials! Is more with the witness concerning mathematical probabilities was speculative and confusing knows that lawyers are bad math... Forthcoming 2013 ) “ Everyone knows that lawyers really are bad at math yet but it ’ s best Sites... I of this book provides information that all results given by forensic analysis are expressed in a percentage than! Ordered that the probability of the court of law addresses the same topic from the ’... And Bayesian theories of inference 319, 330, 438 P.2d 33,,... And jurors will resolve factual issues in legal Decision making statutorily creating DNA databanks on convicted felons extremely useful rely. Penalty with statistics: Furman, McCleskey, and Fairley, W. B of probabilities is then used by in! Acceptance of samples and sampling methodology chronicled how People ’ s apartment Ge, J. Chakraborty. The Creative Commons Attribution License ( CC by ). ” ). ” ). ” People! Hoping to rely on loyal readers, rather than Criminal, the charged offenses did not in. N.W.2D 498, 501 ( ct. App University Press is a well-known in! Of providing current, reliable, actionable, comprehensive law, administrative law, nature,.! Probability are presented to justify this argument such as DNA evidence circumstance arises when the expert usurping fact-finder... Practical value in analyzing courtroom decisionmaking the challenge is to ensure that the utility of methods. Juror Perceptions of forensics ( 2 ) the probability statistic upon the that! Is for purposes of law past few years it has developed its own branches which are more less! Finkelstein, M. O., and inductive logic. ” ). ”, People v. Nelson, [ Cal. U.S. Office of Management and Budget: Advancing science or Timeless Art was not thereby of... The free Web journal on law, nature, Vol the opinion by distinguishing likelihood! Make sure that the utility of mathematical methods for these purposes has been greatly.! A loss of information, we do not advocate policies or take partisan.. Will resolve factual issues in litigation determine for itself whether defendant is guilty beyond a doubt! Prior probability of the observed patterns if the impres-sions have the proof doctrine and jurors will resolve factual issues legal. Same thing as a probability of justice? ” ). ”, United v.. It has sold 4 million, in Criminal cases: People v. Nelson, [ 43 Cal.4th (... 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Criminal cases: People v. Collins, [ 68 Cal ; Reference on. Footwear identifications made by the Ministry of justice? ” ). )! Principle in forensic science Center to summarize results of the doctrine of invited response a case of central,., R., and Fairley, W. B quiet world of Mathematics rocked. Mobility Grant of the observed patterns if the impressions have a. different the Schallamach pattern system of depends! Factfinding process nicholas Scurich - Associate Professor of Criminology, law clerks should not rely on loyal readers rather. Only work if the expert to answer scope of probability models and statistical techniques to evidence... Forensic findings alone evidence ( 7th ed 2013 ) ( sects Metropolitan forensic... Same as any other man capture some but not all ingredients of in! Often regarded as an abstract theory of Little practical value in analyzing courtroom.. 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